We're all going to die

[iainjclark]

So this is it. We're all going to die. Maybe. Okay, probably not. We're almost certainly safe. But read the story anyway.

(This is why I'll never work in a tabloid newspaper.)

Comments

[chance88088.livejournal.com]

well we *are* all going to die. eventually. unless we work out that post-human store your brain in a computer thing. so like 90% certain we are going to die.

[weyoun-one.livejournal.com]

Don't worry. SG-1 will arrive at the last minute and send it in to hyperspace.

[iainjclark.livejournal.com]

Yay for Carter's technobabble solutions!

[ajp.livejournal.com]

Comet Catalina was on what could possibly be a collision course with Earth, though the odds of such an impact were small: just 1 chance in 300,000 of a strike on June 11, 2085.

Now you see, that doesn't really scare me very much. Not only because 1:300,000 (the worst case figure) describes a pretty unlikely event (though it does); but rather because in 2085, I'd be 108 years old. Therefore the probability of me dying before June 11th 2085 - is vastly higher than the chances of me dying on June 11th 2085 - from the results of the impact.

Based on the 980-metre size estimate, that would produce a 6-gigaton impact - equivalent to 6 billion tonnes of TNT.

You know you're a proper nerd when you feel the desire to run those numbers yourself...

I make it a little higher than 6GT - but I'm assuming a) a spherical asteroid, b) that it's made of granite-like rock, c) it's travelling at 25,000 MPH, and d) that it's yield is 1/8th of it's KE before impact.

I'm guessing that the boys at the JPL have made more accurate assumptions to get to their answer.

[iainjclark.livejournal.com]

Therefore the probability of me dying before June 11th 2085 - is vastly higher than the chances of me dying on June 11th 2085 - from the results of the impact.

Tut. Where's your civic-mindedness?

I'm guessing that the boys at the JPL have made more accurate assumptions to get to their answer

They just watched Armageddon a few times and took a wild guess. Their initial estimate was for an impact equivalent to 6 billion Bruce Willises.

[ajp.livejournal.com]

Tut. Where's your civic-mindedness?

I'm sorry... :-)

They just watched Armageddon a few times and took a wild guess

:-)

Their initial estimate was for an impact equivalent to 6 billion Bruce Willises.

6 billion Bruce Willises? Now that is something to be afraid of... :-)