Comet Catalina was on what could possibly be a collision course with Earth, though the odds of such an impact were small: just 1 chance in 300,000 of a strike on June 11, 2085.
Now you see, that doesn't really scare me very much. Not only because 1:300,000 (the worst case figure) describes a pretty unlikely event (though it does); but rather because in 2085, I'd be 108 years old. Therefore the probability of me dying before June 11th 2085 - is vastly higher than the chances of me dying on June 11th 2085 - from the results of the impact.
Based on the 980-metre size estimate, that would produce a 6-gigaton impact - equivalent to 6 billion tonnes of TNT.
You know you're a proper nerd when you feel the desire to run those numbers yourself...
I make it a little higher than 6GT - but I'm assuming a) a spherical asteroid, b) that it's made of granite-like rock, c) it's travelling at 25,000 MPH, and d) that it's yield is 1/8th of it's KE before impact.
I'm guessing that the boys at the JPL have made more accurate assumptions to get to their answer.
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zvi and
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Date: 2005-06-02 06:11 am (UTC)Now you see, that doesn't really scare me very much. Not only because 1:300,000 (the worst case figure) describes a pretty unlikely event (though it does); but rather because in 2085, I'd be 108 years old. Therefore the probability of me dying before June 11th 2085 - is vastly higher than the chances of me dying on June 11th 2085 - from the results of the impact.
You know you're a proper nerd when you feel the desire to run those numbers yourself...
I make it a little higher than 6GT - but I'm assuming a) a spherical asteroid, b) that it's made of granite-like rock, c) it's travelling at 25,000 MPH, and d) that it's yield is 1/8th of it's KE before impact.
I'm guessing that the boys at the JPL have made more accurate assumptions to get to their answer.